Our Research
Our group works to develop computational tools to model block and ash and pyroclastic volcanic flows. The work focuses on hazard assessment and prediction based upon projections of where the volcanic flow will travel following an eruption. Through the use of geographic information systems (GIS) data (elevations, topographic maps), mathematical modeling of volcanic flow, simulations, and testing codes against lab experiments and field data (historical eruption events), we strive to provide the necessary information to determine what areas might be at risk, as well as what routes would be safe to utilize in the event of an evacuation. This kind of information is useful to civil protection groups charged with risk assessment and hazard preparation.
Recently, several of our group members worked in concert with the Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI) to model probable volcanic flows and hazard levels of the Soufrèire Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean. This particular volcano, which exhibits a canonical dome growth structure, had been dormant for several hundred years before its current activity began in 1995. Recent volcanic episodes have affected island residents significantly—half the island is currently off-limits to residents, a region that includes the former capital and principal port city of Plymouth.
The frequency with which the Soufrèire Hills Volcano has been erupting in recent years has allowed for extensive study of this dome building type of volcano. Using the TITAN2D computational tool designed by our group, along with other computational methods, we are able to develop probability statements about the occurrence of particular events, including the size and direction of future eruptions. Through analyzing this volcano’s data, we hope to have predictions not only for Monserrat’s residents and civil protection agencies, but also for other locations with similar volcanic structures. Of the 50 or so volcanic eruptions per year around the world, two-thirds to three-fourths of these occur within range of a population center. We hope that our collaborative efforts and continuing work on mapping and predicting volcanic flows will help to prevent future losses of life in these areas.
Participating Researchers & Departments
- Marcus Bursik, Geology
- Eliza Calder, Geology
- Abani Patra, Mechanical Engineering
- Bruce Pitman, Mathematics
- Christian Renschler, Geography
- Mike Sheridan, Geology
- Center for GeoHazards Studies
This group’s work began seven years ago with a $1.9 million award from the National Science Foundation to UB researcher Abani Patra. Subsequent grants and awards to the group’s members have provided ongoing support for these important research efforts. This continued collaboration across departments and with external institutions has led to the development of the TITAN2D system (now with hundreds of users in the U.S. and abroad). Efforts continue, to predict volcanic hazards at sites in Mexico, Central and South America, and New Zealand.